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Recognizing Trends To Avoid big mistakes & Gain ____
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Avoid Massive Mistakes By More Accurately Identifying Trends-
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missing a trend, vs being wrong about one
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Instead, Ride the Wave of a True Positive Trend
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Can get really hurt by falsely identifying a trend…
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much worse than missing a correct trend
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Can really gain a lot by correctly identifying a trend
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Open Loops: Some of the topics we have mapped to cover
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COVID biz ops
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Stock Market
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Fletch studied economics in grad school
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Environmental/ecological
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False straight lines…
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Short term vs long term trends
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What is a trend?
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What actually is a trend?
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Looking at why people make decisions
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Economists look at historical data and come up with reasons why that data happened
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to potentially model future events
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Real Estate projections in California
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Right way to ID a trend…
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understand what is driving us
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looking at the many contextual factors
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ID what is driving…
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Context that points to avoiding/going after a trend
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Money is a huge frame of context
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stock market
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Bitcoin/crypto
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Why is Bitcoin valuable?
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Will Bitcoin continue to grow?
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Does block chain have real, practical, and unique value
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History
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False long term trends…
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tulip bulb bubble
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Half truth long term trends
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Internet bubble
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Bubbles create irrational behavior — on the up & down
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Climate change
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C02 trends
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true cost of things
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suddenness of change
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live in a box example
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COVID-19
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fear trend(s)
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curiosity or gratitude
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co-factors
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…a lotta money changing hands
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which will drive behavior
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biz
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hospitals
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work from home
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zoom
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web cams
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personal
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short term vs long term
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linear vs non-linear
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short term vs long term
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brainz
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