• Recognizing Trends To Avoid big mistakes & Gain ____
    • Avoid Massive Mistakes By More Accurately Identifying Trends-
      • missing a trend, vs being wrong about one
    • Instead, Ride the Wave of a True Positive Trend
    • Can get really hurt by falsely identifying a trend…
      • much worse than missing a correct trend
    • Can really gain a lot by correctly identifying a trend
    • Open Loops:  Some of the topics we have mapped to cover
      • COVID biz ops
      • Stock Market
      • Fletch studied economics in grad school
        • Environmental/ecological
      • False straight lines…
      • Short term vs long term trends
      • What is a trend?
  • What actually is a trend?
    • Looking at why people make decisions
    • Economists look at historical data and come up with reasons why that data happened
      • to potentially model future events
      • Real Estate projections in California
    • Right way to ID a trend…
      • understand what is driving us
      • looking at the many contextual factors
    • ID what is driving…
    • Context that points to avoiding/going after a trend
    • Money is a huge frame of context
  • stock market
    • Bitcoin/crypto
      • Why is Bitcoin valuable?
      • Will Bitcoin continue to grow?
      • Does block chain have real, practical, and unique value
    • History
      • False long term trends…
      • tulip bulb bubble
      • Half truth long term trends
      • Internet bubble
    • Bubbles create irrational behavior — on the up & down
  • Climate change
  • COVID-19
    • fear trend(s)
      • curiosity or gratitude
    • co-factors
    • …a lotta money changing hands
      • which will drive behavior
    • biz
      • hospitals
      • work from home
        • zoom
        • web cams
    • personal
    • short term vs long term
  • linear vs non-linear
  • short term vs long term
  • brainz

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